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Deciphering the Electoral College, the system that elects the United States president.
故事系列
简单的公民

One of the more confusing structures of our constitution is the Electoral College. While most democracies in the world elect their chief executive by a majority of the popular vote, in the United States the process of electing our president is rather complex, and in some respects undemocratic. 制定选举程序的开国元勋们担心,由普选产生的总统将把太多的权力交给普通人,而不是精英, who they felt could be counted on to make decisions and lead the country in a more “responsible,” and likely self-serving manner.

To achieve this goal, 总统的选举是由各州的民众投票组织的,选举人票由众议院和两名参议员的代表人数分配. 例如, using today’s electoral college process, California has 54 electoral votes (52 representatives and two senators), while 麻萨诸塞州 has 11 electoral votes (nine representatives and two senators). The total number of electoral votes for all 50 states plus the District of Columbia is 538, and a majority of those votes is 270. 因此, 当总统(和副总统,因为他们合并为一票)的选举进行时, 赢得各州普选和选举人票的总统将这些选票加到他们的总票数中. When that total adds up to 270 or more, the president is declared the winner.

这意味着我们的全国总统选举是一个州驱动的过程——赢得尽可能多的州的普选,加起来达到270或更多,胜利就锁定了. By electing a president based on state electoral votes, the founding fathers were assured that the people would not control the outcome, but rather the states, especially the larger states like Virginia, 麻萨诸塞州, Pennsylvania and 纽约, where many of the monied and landed elites like Washington, Jefferson and Adams came from, gained control of the reins of government.

但是,虽然从选举人票总数中选出总统似乎是对各州选票的简单计算, the process can become complicated. Should no candidate gain 270 electoral votes, 总统和副总统的选举转移到众议院,每个州有一票,加州和马萨诸塞州是平等的. 无论哪位候选人获得州决定投票的多数(51票或更多),都将被宣布获胜. 但是,这些单票的投票可能会更加复杂,因为每个州都必须决定哪位候选人获得这一票. 每个州内部的政党和意识形态差异会使投票决定变得困难,如果不是高度党派化的话.

为什么总统和副总统选举中的民主实践是复杂的,也是有问题的,这个问题涉及到拥有大量选举人票的国家的权力. Win the popular vote in just the most populous states like California, 德州, 佛罗里达, 纽约, 伊利诺斯州, 俄亥俄州, 乔治亚州, 密歇根, 新泽西, North Carolina and Pennsylvania and the key threshold of 270 is attained. In theory, 11 state victories can secure the presidency. 当然, winning the popular vote in those 11 states is certainly not guaranteed, 但它确实显示了选举人团如何向所谓的“战场”州倾斜的影响,这些州可能会掌握选举权力的平衡. 此外, 特定总统候选人的总票数不如每个州的总票数重要. 例如, Hilary Clinton, the Democratic candidate for president in 2016 received 65,853,625 popular votes to Donald Trump’s 62,985,106, but he received 306 electoral votes to Clinton’s 232 electoral votes and won the presidency. Clinton’s popular vote margin meant little in an electoral college system; what mattered was winning states and gaining their electoral votes.

Because of the impact of the large states in the electoral college, 总统候选人通常会在这11个州花费大量时间,而在较小的州花费较少的时间和宝贵的财力,这些州对270张或更多选举人票的目标只贡献少量选举人票. But if the race for the 270 is close and both candidates for the presidency are nearing the 270 total, states like Wyoming (three electoral votes), 佛蒙特州(三张选举人票)、南达科他州和北达科他州(各三张选举人票)等几个州可能变得至关重要. 更复杂、更不民主的是,总统候选人可能只获得少数的普选票,但如果他们赢得了大小州的总和,达到或超过270个目标,他们仍有可能获胜. This scenario occurred not only in the Clinton-Trump election of 2016 but also in 1824, 1876, 1888年和2000年.

Because of the unique character of the United States electoral system for the presidency, state election strategy becomes critical. 重要的不仅是为候选人争取选票,以确保在一个州的胜利,并获得选举人票, 但在一个州的势均力敌的选举中,确保最终的总票数准确、不受任何形式的篡改是至关重要的, miscalculation or outright fraud. In the 2020 election, 特朗普总统竞选团队被指控策划了一项“假选举人”计划,即来自共和党的政党领导人或未经州官员任命的特朗普忠诚者,他们将非法证明一个州(格鲁吉亚)的最终总数, 拜登获胜的密歇根州和威斯康星州是假选举人计划突出的地方),并将这些假证明送到华盛顿,以计算正确的总数,以帮助唐纳德·特朗普赢得这些州的选举人票. The scheme was uncovered and led to criminal charges against the fake electors. 假选举人计划指出了选举团过程中可能出现的挑战.

在美国选举制度内部,有很多人呼吁取消选举人团制度,代之以直接普选制. Such an action would require an amendment to the Constitution, 这不仅困难,而且会遭到那些有可能从影响最终选举人票中获益的小州的反对. 在唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)战胜希拉里·克林顿(hillary Clinton)之后,取消选举人团制度的呼声尤为突出, despite her popular vote count lead of nearly 3 million votes. 2024年美国总统大选将再次使选举人团成为全国关注的焦点,因为两位候选人可能会质疑关键州的选票,并要求重新审查结果,因此票数接近可能再次造成混乱. 尽管计算美国公众的所有选票并根据得票最多的人宣布获胜者会更容易, 一个不那么复杂、更民主的选举总统的过程似乎是不可能的.